Big bets, small victories -- and a little luck: How the Braves have built a model MLB franchise (2024)

THE FIRST TIME Atlanta Braves scouts saw future star third baseman Austin Riley, he was pitching. It was summer 2014, and former national cross-checker Sean Rooney was scouting the two-way prospect at the Perfect Game National Showcase.

"He was a good pitcher, 88-92 miles per hour, good breaking ball, good delivery," Rooney said. "But he immediately stood out more as a hitter to me. The power, the swing, the ease of his actions made him more appealing to me as a position player."

Later that summer, former scouting director Brian Bridges saw Riley hit a ball out of the complex at a tournament in the suburbs of Atlanta. He, too, was sold on Riley's future as a hitter.

By that point, all 30 MLB teams were scouting Riley. But Bridges' and Rooney's instincts were a minority opinion in the industry. Recollections vary, but as the scouting process came into the homestretch in spring 2015, there were a number of teams with third- or fourth-round evaluations on him as a pitcher -- no more than four were scouting Riley as a position player. The Braves took advantage.

We know what happened next. Riley is one of the cornerstones of the franchise and also the epitome of how the Braves became a perennial postseason contender with the second-best record in baseball over the past five-plus seasons. The story of how they got here is about a series of scouting victories, seemingly small decisions and personality quirks -- along with a little luck -- that adds up to baseball's best group of young talent.

With the 2024 squad gearing up for another shot at playoff success with a 26-14 start to the season, we had conversations with 15 current and former Braves players, coaches, scouts and execs about how one of the model franchises of this era came together.

Finding MLB draft day steals

One of the most basic questions teams ask in scouting amateur players is if they should be a pitcher or a position player. The Braves bet against the industry twice and struck gold both times.

Riley was the first. After Bridges and Rooney came to their conclusions, Bridges sent his mentor, Roy Clark -- all three men now work for the Kansas City Royals scouting department -- to see Riley for four straight games in a tournament in LaGrange, Georgia. Bridges still remembers the long pause in Clark's verbal report after "pretty good pitcher but ..." With Clark still searching for the right phrase, Bridges cut him off: "You don't have to say another word."

Former Chicago White Sox and Braves big league hitting coach Greg Walker had a similar opinion. "I was all-in," he said. "He had everything you'd want. I couldn't see why other teams didn't have him turned in as a hitter."

Bridges still didn't tell other staffers how sold he was on Riley, waiting until Riley's last playoff game to bring in the rest of his brain trust for a final look: Rooney, national cross-checker Deron Rombach and scouting assistant Chris Lionetti. Up until then, Bridges had only sent evaluators to see Riley on days he was pitching so rival teams wouldn't know Atlanta's intentions. At this point, he knew the team had tipped its hand: "All the other scouts were looking at us. They knew we were all-in."

Riley hit an opposite field homer, made a big league-caliber backhand play at shortstop, then turned in a fringe average run time on a rocket that short hopped and knocked the opposing shortstop on his back -- and all that at 6-foot-3, 225 pounds. That sealed the evaluation for the Braves scouts, but arguably the most important takeaway came on the way out to the parking lot, when Bridges asked Riley's mother what he didn't know about Austin.

"He'll do whatever it takes to play in the big leagues," she said. "He'll even catch."

That catching comment caused Bridges to immediately recall his biggest mistake in scouting: "I never asked Buster Posey if he'd catch when I scouted him in high school. Posey was the most competitive kid I'd ever seen at that point and I had him turned in as a pitcher," he said. "I wouldn't have if I knew he would catch. ... I didn't want to make that mistake again."

The Braves had Riley in the middle of the first round on their 2015 draft board and were picking 14th and 28th overall. In the end, they were able to take him with the 41st overall pick, with a few interested teams picking right behind that slot.

Four years later, under new GM Alex Anthopoulos, many of the scouts from the Riley pick had left, but Lionetti was still with the team as scouting coordinator. Enter Atlanta's next big bet: Michael Harris II, another two-way prep player in the Southeast, who most teams saw as a pitcher.

Harris was a late bloomer, only bursting onto the national scouting scene in the fall before the draft. With that shortened window to scout him, the Braves needed to see him often to be in position to decide if they would be willing to offer him enough money to keep him from going to Texas Tech, where he was set to be a two-way player.

Harris made it easy on Lionetti. The Braves were hosting a fall showcase event at Truist Park and Lionetti invited Harris to pitch. Harris had a condition. "Michael told me he wouldn't come unless I'd guarantee him an at-bat in each game of the event," Lionetti said.

"I was seen more as a pitcher than a hitter and that's what really got me on the map to scouts," Harris said recently. "[That] was able to get me up there so they could see my bat."

In spring 2019, the Braves scouting director, Dana Brown -- now general manager of the Houston Astros -- was left without a destination after a game was rained out, so Lionetti suggested pivoting to see a game near home where Harris was pitching. He didn't pitch well that day, but he hit well -- in front of the most important set of scouting eyes in the organization. Harris aced the Braves' mental skills test, and the organization was sold on his confidence and work ethic. That was enough to get him in position for what put him over the top: his pre-draft workout at Truist Park.

"It was an incredible workout." Lionetti said, "It was one of the best I've ever seen."

Harris smiled when asked about it.

"I was hitting the sweet spot a lot and it felt good," he said, "Just being able to do it here at home and impress the team that I grew up loving. It was huge."

The Braves selected Harris in the third round in the 2019 draft. He won Rookie of the Year in 2022.

Amazingly, even with a largely different staff, the process of evaluating Harris was very similar to that of landing Riley, the two most notable two-way player whiffs by the rest of the scouting community in recent memory. The Braves not only got the evaluations right, but they also landed both players in the draft -- and locked both up on long-term deals through at least 2030.

Allowing time to develop in the minors

Despite the confidence shown in scouting and then drafting him, there were questions about Riley from the jump in pro ball. He started his career 1-for-22 with 11 strikeouts and a .321 OPS in rookie ball -- numbers included in some pointed texts from then-club president John Hart to Bridges about his gut-feeling pick. Bridges sent Walker down to check on Riley and didn't hear anything for a few days, which caused Bridges to get a little nervous.

Finally, Walker called Bridges with good news.

"It was nothing to worry about, just a long layoff after the end of the high school season, more timing than his movement or speed," Walker recalled. "I [said] he'd break out soon."

In his next 16 games, Riley posted a 1.104 OPS with seven homers, earning a promotion. This became a pattern for Riley, who needed a breaking-in period at each level. Early struggles each time caused questions from rival scouts: They argued he couldn't stick at third base, he couldn't hit premium velocity or that his hand load was too deep to make consistent contact.

These concerns weren't totally off base. I asked Riley what his main struggles were in the minors and he said with a laugh: "Everything. I made 30 errors in 2016 with [Single-A] Rome ... striking out a lot ... I had a hip slide [in my swing] and that created this big pullback with my hands. So I've obviously worked those kinks out, but it wouldn't allow me to catch up with velo."

Going into the 2018 season, Anthopoulos joined the Braves as general manager, coming over from the Los Angeles Dodgers. Almost immediately, those in the organization made their faith in Riley clear to him.

"There was a fierce belief internally on the makeup, ability, everything," Anthopoulos said. "The people that were around him the most in player development and spent the most time around him raved about the makeup. Once he repeats [a level] he starts to dominate, starts to make adjustments. Even the start in 2021 was rough [.451 OPS through 46 plate appearances in the big leagues], then he really turned it on and didn't look back."

This conviction was key because, after the 2018 season, stars like J.T. Realmuto and Christian Yelich were being traded for multiple top prospects. The Braves had a top-tier farm system and Riley was among the names coming up in rumors and trade asks.

Spencer Strider was another player who needed more than a little seasoning in the minor leagues. He always had arm speed and skills, but he had already undergone Tommy John surgery as an amateur and didn't have a good second pitch, not to mention not much in the way of bulk innings (63 total innings at Clemson) to prove what kind of pitcher he was. That is why he lasted until the 126th pick in the 2020 draft and why he never made the top 100 prospect list of any publication.

In 2021, though, Strider set the minors on fire (153 strikeouts in 94 innings). He was still mostly relying on his heater, sitting 95 to 98 mph, about four ticks harder than in college, so the industry belief was that he would fit best in the late innings. By that fall, he was on Anthopoulos' radar, earning two relief appearances for his big league debut.

"We thought we were thin on right-handed relievers," Anthopoulos said. "He showed the fastball, the slider was still inconsistent. He didn't make the [playoff] roster but continued to work. Next spring, the breaker was elite."

"What I remember the first time I saw him, I think it was in spring training, he's fricking hitting the building when he's throwing his sides," manager Brian Snitker said. "With the slider, we went to work on it in the offseason two years ago. ... I think the biggest thing was the fact that they evidently worked his delivery out and got consistent with it, repeated it and started throwing strikes."

Upon earning his spot in the big league rotation, Strider blossomed into a star, posting a 2.67 ERA in 2022 and finishing fourth in Cy Young voting last season before undergoing season-ending elbow surgery in April. In only a year, his slider went from below-average to plus. How?

Strider describes it like a scientist:

"Understanding where my hand is [at release], what my natural tendencies are with release point and hand position, I was trying to set a goal for the pitch that was realistic with what my capabilities were. ... I don't have the mechanical ability to throw a sweeping curveball. ... With more helpful feedback from hitters at the Double-A level, I was able to create a pitch that was more effective."

Anthopoulos also pointed to the work put in outside of games.

"He really digs into the data," he said. "The best ones are always trying to get better. [Max] Fried now has a slider, changeup and two-seam after being mostly a four-seam and curveball guy when he came up. Even among great players, very few have it all at the outset."

Space to thrive in the majors

The 2018 season that was Anthopoulos' first as Atlanta's GM also brought Mike Brumley, a friend that Walker recommended for the job. Brumley left the Braves in 2020 to do private instruction for his own company, but counts Riley and Dansby Swanson as two of his most prominent clients now.

Brumley was there to help Riley as he navigated the journey from Double-A to the big leagues. "Solving that equation of the hand load/weight shift/chase concerns comes with experience," Brumley said. "Every pitcher is trying to work around the zone, trying to induce chase rather than throw in the zone. I didn't want him to be fearful of a strikeout. ... Early in the big leagues, he had too much slider chase off the plate, then he made the adjustment, but then was fouling back fastballs, so he had to dial that in, between those two extremes."

The questions continued with Riley until his breakout 2021 campaign. He hit a combined .283/.351/.515 with 111 homers and 16.9 WAR over the past three-plus seasons, picking up a $212 million extension along the way.

Snitker has seen how Riley has battled even in these past few years: "I don't know that there's ever a time when it's like you sit back and go, 'wow, I figured it all out,'" he said. "I don't think that ever happens in this game. I think til the day you retire, there's going to be things you're going to battle and things you're going to be trying to figure out and get better at.

"But he's really good at hanging with himself and as he's matured, he's learning things, he's learning the league, he's getting the confidence. ... I think that's what's allowed him to be such a successful player."

As Anthopoulos put it of Harris, another player who has fought through slumps in the big leagues: "The best players will constantly make adjustments."

Even Ronald Acuna Jr., who had a season for the ages in 2023. When asked what changed for him that season, he didn't give much. "I'm just going up, looking to hit the ball and make a good swing." Acuña said through an interpreter. "Fortunately, I'm not striking out as much."

Then in a follow-up question, he bypassed the interpreter and chuckled slyly: "See the ball, hit the ball."

This doesn't surprise me: I worked in the Braves front office when there was an internal discussion after the 2016 season about how Acuña, then coming off his Single-A season, would be better if he lifted the ball more because his exit velos (still somewhat new at this point) were so high. In 2017, he immediately started hitting the ball in the air -- and we never actually found out if anyone had told him to do it. That's about how mysterious every anecdote or inference about how Acuña makes adjustments goes: He's a savant who works by feel and doesn't love talking about how it happens.

After his 2018 debut, Acuña played only one full season -- 2019 -- until last year, though he made four All-Star Games over that span. In 2022, in particular, Acuña struggled as he continued to rehab a leg injury from the 2021 postseason.

"I don't think people have an idea what he tried to play through all of [2022]," Snitker said. "Mentally bouncing back from that to what he is, it's been awesome."

Acuña admitted he doubted if he'd ever feel as good as he felt in 2019 again: "I'd be lying if I said that I thought that I would ever be able to get back to 100 percent. [In 2022], I felt like I was saying all the time that, yeah, I'm 100 percent, I'm 100 percent, but I feel like that was just something I was telling myself just to -- you know, for my mind really."

All of this gives the Braves peace of mind this season, as they wait for Acuña to heat up -- he's batting .245 with four home runs this season. After all, he's fixed these kinds of issues before.

As Anthopoulos put it when talking about Acuna's massive drop in strikeouts during his MVP 2023 season, from 24% in 2022 to 11% in 2023: "I never saw that coming. ... We've all been amazed. I want to pick his brain. I've never seen that type of change from one year to the next."

Maximizing big league stability

In Riley's third season in the big leagues -- his breakout campaign of 2021 -- he won a World Series. In his fourth, he made his first All-Star Game -- and just a few weeks later signed a 10-year, $212 million contract, the most lucrative in club history.

That, too, has been the Braves' guiding philosophy. Rival fans speak of the Braves' core that's locked up seemingly forever -- Riley, Matt Olson, Acuña, Strider, Harris, Ozzie Albies and Sean Murphy -- as though Atlanta has split the atom.

Anthopoulos said there is a complicated calculus of deciding to offer an extension: "You're betting on the person at the end of the day. They might have down years; they might get hurt. It's a long-term commitment; there's guarantees. Will you create complacency? You're set for life with generational wealth, will the drive be there?

"We're early into these [contracts] like Riley and Olson are on eight- to 10-year deals, two to three years in; it's still too early [to know how it'll play out]. It's hard to regret betting on the person, if they don't work out, they don't work out. If you have questions on character or work ethic, it's not a good starting point."

Even outside of the core, the Braves front office looks for other ways to lock in players long term. This winter, after a disappointing postseason exit at the hand of the division rival Philadelphia Phillies, Atlanta stuck with the same principles in free agency.

The Braves entered the offseason in need of starting pitching depth and their two acquisitions, Reynaldo Lopez and Chris Sale, have found early success in Atlanta -- and are both locked up through at least 2026.

"Sale is someone we've targeted for a while," Anthopoulos said. "He's a fantastic teammate and has fantastic makeup: That's what we'd consistently heard and that's what he's been for us."

Same goes for Lopez.

"[He] was very durable back when he was a starter," Anthopoulos said. "He matured as a pitcher while in the bullpen and he also has great makeup. That was confirmed when Lopez said he'd pitch in whatever role we asked."

Because Lopez and Sale are on contracts that keep them in Atlanta for multiple years and have repertoires built around the ability to control a key pitch, catcher Travis d'Arnaud can focus on long-term improvement.

"They both have a lot more fastball command than I initially thought, which then opens up a lot of other pitches," d'Arnaud said. "It's a lot of give and take, a lot of conversations that take months, it's not instant. Yesterday, [Sale] threw the first lefty-lefty changeup. Can he do it? Let's see, why not? So it's experimenting and truly finding out what they're fully able to do before we label anybody."

Anthopoulos also acknowledged that creating the stability brought by bringing in players to be multiyear additions is a front-office focus.

"There's value in having these guys under contract for multiple years," he said. "They know they're a part of the team and we can take a longer view on how to deploy them."

Bringing back that '90s feeling in Atlanta?

There have been times over the years when an organization seems to have "figured it out," like they've found some silver bullet for scouting or development. But as these anecdotes show, the real secret to success is always a combination of luck, skill, hard work, communication and a bunch of people being on the same page. Only a handful of teams really combine all of these features, but the conditions mean something special can happen.

The Braves dynasty of the 1990's and early 2000's had that going, as did the Yankees' teams of that same era. The Dodgers have a version of it going on now, too.

Since the breakthrough season of that dynasty in 1991, the Braves are second to the Yankees in regular-season wins. There's some built-in advantages Anthopoulos mentions -- "iconic brand, the success in the '90's, TBS, all of the Hall of Fame players, all of the success" -- but it ultimately comes down to winning.

"My first couple years here, no one was impressed with making the postseason," Anthopoulos said. "It was about how long since we've won a playoff round ... with this place especially, there's pressure to produce a good product every year. It's a great fan base but it's a challenge. All five teams in our division are trying to get better. If you've been in the game long enough, you know how hard it is."

Similarly to the big league roster, the front office has incredible continuity. So many of the key figures have been in Atlanta for a long time (Snitker is in his fifth decade with the organization), or were early hires of Anthopoulos when this process was kicked into high gear. It's not lost on Snitker.

"These guys all know they're going to be here for a long time," he said. "There's not tons of turnover."

Of course, there's a flip side. The long-term money committed -- over $100 million already just for the 2028 season, including the likely pickup of Acuna's option -- doesn't leave much room for error in building the team. Anthopoulos knows this.

"At some point, you have so many commitments that you lose flexibility," Anthopoulos said.

Some of these deals immediately looked team-friendly, like the Acuna and Albies transactions, but some of the more recent ones, like Harris, Strider, Olson and Riley, were either megadeals or precedent-setting for players of that service level. Think of Harris' early season struggles in 2023. If he gets demoted to Triple-A in May and doesn't get out of the funk, how does that $72 million guaranteed sound? It's not without risk.

The Braves are betting on the players to perform and betting on the players as good people. So far, their instincts have been right, including the right scouts, the right coaches, the right execs, the right plans. If that winning streak continues, it might start to feel like the early '90's again.